摘要
长期以来，铁路运输都是我国主要的运输方式，特别是现在经济高速发展，人员流动更加的频繁，铁路运输在整个交通运输中的比重还是不断增加，在运输中发挥着巨大的作用。铁路客运量连创新高，运力不断增大，但是目前铁路运力仍然供不应求，尤其是春运期间更是出现了一票难求的情况。这些都需要铁路部门及时的调整，增加运力，本文通过对近几年的客流量的数据进行深入的分析研究，总结了影响了对铁路客流量的影响的因素，在充分研究的基础上运用系统工程结构中解释模型对影响因素的层次结构进行定量分析，并且给出了适合的预测客流量的模型。通过对近几年的铁路客运量数据的综合分析，利用灰色线性回归组合模型的方法来预测未来的铁路客流量和发展的趋势，这样能根据预测的客流量的特点以及发展趋势及时的增加运力，增强调度，保证及时的将旅客送达目的地。但是目前虽然铁路客运量逐渐增加，但是由于铁路运输没有竞争同时投资与收支不平衡等因素的影响，因此目前总体来看，铁路运输是成亏损状态的，应从营销的角度出发，充分利用铁路运输的优势，强化服务理念，面向不同的消费者提出多品种、多层次的服务，为旅客提供高档次、现代化的客运服务等措施来改进服务，同时加强铁路企业投资的管理，促进铁路客运不断地发展，在现代化建设中发挥更大的作用。
关键词：铁路客运；预测模型；营销
ABSTRACT
Long-term since, railway transportation are the main mode of transport, especially now that economy high speed development, personnel flow is more frequent, the railway transportation in the whole transportation proportion is increasing, the transportation is playing a great role. Railway passenger traffic innovates repeatedly tall, capacity increasing, but the current railway transport capacity is still in short supply, especially for transport during the Spring Festival period is more difficult to get a ticket. These require railway departments timely adjustment, increased capacity, based on recent years, passenger traffic volume data of in-depth analysis and study, summed up the impact of the railway passenger flow factors, in the full study based on the application of system engineering in the structure interpretation model on the factors that influence the hierarchical structure to undertake quantitative analysis, and is given a suitable forecasting model of passenger flow. In last few years through be opposite the railway passenger traffic volume data comprehensive analysis, using gray linear regression combination model to forecast the future railway passenger flow and the development trend, so according to the prediction of passenger flow characteristics and development trends of timely to increase capacity, enhance scheduling, to ensure timely the passengers to the destination. But at present, although the railway passenger volume increased gradually, but because railroad carries no competition at the same time investment and disequilibrium of balance of payments and other factors, so the current overall, railway transportation is a loss of status, from the marketing point of view, make full use of the advantages of railway transportation, strengthen the service concept, for different consumers put more varieties, multiple levels of service, provide high grade, modern passenger service measures to improve services, while strengthening the railway enterprise investment management, promote the continuous development of railway passenger transport, in modern play an important role in the construction.
Keywords: railway passenger transport, measurement model, marketing
目 录
1、前言…………………………………………………………………………………………………… 1
2、文献综述……………………………………………………………………………………………. 2
3、我国铁路客运预测模型的发展现状…………………………………………………….. 5
3.1我国铁路客运预测模型建立的必要性………………………………………….. 5
3.2 我国铁路客流预测的发展现状……………………………………………………. 6
3.3 我国现行的几种比较先进的预测模式…………………………………………. 6
3.3.1 基于传统BP神经网络的预测模型……………………………………. 6
3.3.2 TRAMO／SEATS季节调整模型………………………………………… 7
3.3.3 最小二乘支持向量机的客运模型………………………………………. 8
4 灰色线性回归组合模型………………………………………………………………………. 9
4.1、我国近几年的铁路客运数据……………………………………………………… 9
4.2 运用灰色线性回归组合模型进行预测……………………………………….. 11
5 我国铁路客流量现状分析…………………………………………………………………… 13
5.1 营销观念落后、营销意识淡薄………………………………………………….. 14
5.2 市场调查不足，营销手段落后………………………………………………….. 14
5.3 售票方式欠妥，方法不够灵活………………………………………………….. 14
5.4 运输服务质量不高……………………………………………………………………. 15
6.1 明确市场定位，树立现代营销观念…………………………………………… 15
6.2 改进售票方式…………………………………………………………………………… 16
6.3 提高服务质量…………………………………………………………………………… 16
6.3.1 餐饮质量………………………………………………………………………… 16
6.3.2 娱乐需求………………………………………………………………………… 16
6.3.4 票价服务………………………………………………………………………… 17
6.4 大力开展网络营销和广告宣传………………………………………………….. 17
结论………………………………………………………………………………………………………. 17
参考文献……………………………………………………………………………………………….. 19
