随着时代的发展和社会的进步，我国的房地产市场处于迅猛的发展当中；我国房地产上市公司财务危机的现状和国内外在该领域已有研究成果的基础上，对我国房地产行业企业的财务预警系统问题进行了较为详尽的研究。本文通过对国内外相关理论文献与研究成果的系统回顾和梳理，首先从理论和实证这两方面对我国房地产企业的财务危机进行了科学、合理的界定。然后对我国房地产行业的整体情况进行了相关的理论研究，介绍了我国房地产行业及其发生的财务危机的一般特征，并从宏观和微观两个方面对房地产公司财务危机形成的原因进行了深入分析。另外，通过系统的阐述财务预警系统的相关理论，也为接下来对财务预警进行的实证研究奠定了比较坚实的理论基础。
本文采用理论分析和实证分析相结合的方法。在实证分析部分，通过对我国多家家房地产企业最近年度的财务数据进行整理以及相关变量的选择和设定，然后，利用多元线性回归分析，建立了专门适用于我国房地产企业的财务预警系统模型并对模型进行了回代检验。得出了财务危机的评判结果。最后结合我国国情及房地产行业特点，提出了完善房地产企业财务危机的预警系统机制以及保障房地产行业能够健康、持续发展的政策建议。
关键词：财务预警；房地产企业；系统模型
With the progress of the times and social development, China’s real estate market is in rapid development among; base status and abroad listed real estate companies in the field of financial crisis on the research results of China’s real estate industry, the financial early warning system problems of a more detailed study. Based on the theory of literature and research results of the systematic review and comb, starting both theoretical and empirical our real estate company’s financial crisis a scientific and rational definition. Then on the overall situation of China’s real estate industry for the relevant theoretical study describes the general characteristics of the real estate industry and the financial crisis occurred, and from the macro and micro aspects of the financial crisis on the reasons for the formation of real estate companies in-depth analysis . In addition, through a systematic exposition of the theory of financial early warning system, but also for the next financial early warning empirical research carried out and laid a more solid theoretical foundation.
In this paper, theoretical analysis and empirical analysis methods. In the empirical analysis part, by a number of real estate companies in the most recent annual financial data sorting and selecting and setting related variables, then using multiple linear regression analysis, the establishment of China’s real estate specifically applicable to the financial early warning system model and the model was examined samples. Evaluation of the results obtained financial crisis. Finally, China’s national conditions and characteristics of the real estate industry, the real estate business by improving the financial crisis early warning systems and mechanisms to protect the real estate industry healthy and sustainable development of policy recommendations.
KEY WORDS：Financial early warning;Real estate enterprise;System model
目 录
2 房地产企业财务预警系统理论概述…………………………….. 5
2.2 财务预警系统概述…………………………………….. 5
2.2.2 财务危机预警的理论基础………………………….. 6
2.3 地产企业建立财务预警的意义……………………………. 8
3 房地产企业财务危机的分析及预警系统建立…………………….. 11
3.1 房地产企业财务危机的特征…………………………….. 11
3.2 房地产企业危机的现状分析…………………………….. 11
3.2.1 房地产企业财务危机的不确定性……………………. 11
3.2.2 房地产企业财务危机的客观存在性………………….. 12
3.2.3 房地产企业财务危机的分散转移性………………….. 13
3.3 房地产企业财务危机的预警系统建立……………………… 13
3.3.1 编制现金流量预算………………………………. 13
3.3.2 确立财务预警指标体系…………………………… 14
3.3.3 对企业财务预警体系结构应结合实际建立健全…………. 14
4 以万科集团为例分析房地产企业财务预警………………………. 17
4.1 万科集团概况……………………………………….. 17
4.2 万科集团财务风险预警分析…………………………….. 17
4.3 万科集团财务风险预警系统的构建……………………….. 18
4.3.1 企业财务危机预警系统构建方法……………………. 18
4.3.2 万科集团建立财务预警系统的可行性………………… 20
4.3.3 万科集团建立财务预警系统的原则………………….. 21
