摘 要
现在随着知识经济的不断深化，高科技产业在各个国家经济发展过程中所起到的作用已经越来越明显，财务危机作为企业可能应对的重要风险之一，已经得到企业管理者的重视。财务危机预警模型就是依据企业运营中会对企业日常经营造成重要影响的几个财务指标来判定企业财务危机的判别模型。所以结合我国目前的高科技企业的情况，研究利用财务信息对高新技术企业存在的风险进行识别预警,具有一定理论和现实意义。本文先从高科技企业的定义入手，选取高新技术企业为研究对象，分析了高科技企业的财务特点及对于高科技面临的风险，分别介绍了目前使用率较多的几种财务危机预警模型，强调与现金流量相关的财务指标的选择是建立财务危机预警模型的关键。
关键词：高科技企业；财务危机；预警模型；构建
ABSTRACT
Now, with the deepening of the knowledge economy, high-tech industry in each country’s economic development process in the role it has become increasingly significant, but the explosion of knowledge in science and technology today, things are updated faster, free trade between countries development of high-tech enterprises a higher challenge, technical risks and social risks faced by its products are extremely large. Enterprise financial crisis has become an important venture stakeholders need to anticipate and deal with. Therefore, the high-tech enterprises should build the financial early warning mechanisms for timely communication of information related to the financial crisis early warning enterprises to effectively prevent and resolve financial crises. Help us reduce the adverse effects of various factors of instability to the enterprise.
In recent years, in addition to using the traditional experience discrimination and qualitative analysis methods, business owners have begun to focus on the financial crisis early warning model to understand and use it to predict quantitatively the financial crisis. Financial Crisis Warning Model is to use a series of several corporate financial indicators and non-financial indicators to identify the discriminant model of enterprise financial crisis. How to combine the current situation of high-tech enterprises, the establishment of a financial crisis early-warning model suitable for China’s high-tech enterprises, it is very necessary.
Keywords : High-tech enterprises；Financial Crisis；Warning
目 录
1.1企业财务危机预警模型的定义———————————- 1
1.2企业财务危机预警模型的构成要素—————————— 1
1.3企业财务危机预警模型的种类———————————- 2
1.3.3 Logistic模型—————————————— 3
2.1.2高科技企业财务危机的定义——————————- 4
2.2高科技企业的财务特征及财务危机的形成原因——————– 5
2.2.2高科技企业发生财务危机的原因————————— 6
3.1高科技企业财务危机预警指标体系的构建———————— 8
3.1.1财务危机预警指标选取的一般原则————————- 8
3.2现阶段所使用较多的财务危机预警基本模型及方法—————- 9
3.2.1财务危机预警的主观模型与方法————————— 9
3.2.2财务危机预警的客观模型与方法————————– 10
3.3财务危机预警模型的评析————————————- 10
第四章 以科大讯飞股份有限公司为例预警模型实证分析—— 11
4.1对科大讯飞有限公司财务危机预警的研究———————– 11
4.2科大讯飞股份有限公司财务危机预警模型的结论—————– 11
