我国房地产上市公司的财务预警实证分析

摘要：在日益激烈的市场竞争中，房地产企业的生存日益艰难。如何生存、在生存之后求发展是企业不得不面临的严峻问题。企业的管理当局以及企业的利益相关者均迫切的需要找到一种能够对企业的财务状况进行度量，找出企业可能存在的潜在风险，对潜在的财务风险进行及时准确有效的预测，避免企业滑向破产的深渊的方法。

本文在对财务风险及财务风险度量概念提出的基础上，介绍国内外财务风险度量的方法，并着重介绍了本文用来分析Z-score 模型。同时，在股市选取了我国20家上市公司的财务数据，得出相应结论。

在分析过程中，利用这20家上市公司的财务数据计算这些企业的Z值后，再进行分析研究，希望能够通过该财务风险模型的构建，加强我国房地产上市公司的财务风险预警能力，从而提高这些企业的抗风险能力。

关键词：房地产；财务风险；Z-Score模型

Research on Financial Risk Control in Real-estate Enterprise

ABSTRACT：At present Real-estate is a rapid developing industry of intensive capital in our country with the features that large investments, high debt, capital chain tight. Because of the high debt level, short capital circle and more sensitive for external environment change Real-estate enterprises are possible to fall in great financial risk.

In this paper the financial risk and financial risk measures put forward based on the concept of, introduced the domestic and foreign financial risk measurement method, and introduces mainly the this article used to analysis Z-score model. At the same time, in the stock market in China from 20 companies listed on the financial data, corresponding conclusion.

In the analytical process, use of the 20 companies listed on the calculation of the financial data of the enterprise values Z, again carries on the analysis, the hope can through this financial risk model building, strengthening our country estate of the listed company of financial risk pre-warning ability, so as to improve the ability to resist risk of the enterprise.

Key words: Real-estate enterprise；Financial risk；Z-score model