自上世纪九十年代以来，我国预计债务呈逐年上升和扩大的趋势，目前我国大部分企业都存在不同程度的负债。本文针对债务负担沉重、债务风险化解难度最大的预计债务进行研究和分析。庞大的预计债务规模，严重影响了经济的持续健康增长，带来很大的影响和危害。预计债务已经成为威胁我国发展的重大问题，必须尽快着手解决。
本文以我国预计债务风险为研究对象，综合分析了预计债务的现状、特点，同时介绍了预计债务的正反两方面的效应。在此基础上，论文对预计债务风险的形成原因进行了剖析，从经济发展水平、政府职能及管理等角度分析了影响预计债务风险的因素。总体说来，形成预计债务的原因错综复杂，而现有的体制和机制的不完善是产生预计债务的根源。论文还构建了预计债务风险评价模型，就预计债务风险管理进行了探讨。就如何防范和化解预计债务风险，本文主要从财政体制改革、政府职能转变和债务风险管理的角度提出了相关的政策建议，重点是完善我国公共财政体制，推进预计财政体制改革，同时加强对预计债务风险的管理。
关键字：预计会计；问题研究；企业会计
Since the 1990 s, Chinese debt is expected to show ascendant and expand trend, our country’s at present most enterprises have different levels of debt. This article in view of the debt burden is heavy debt risk dissolves, the most difficult debt is expected to study and analysis. The huge debt is expected to scale, serious impact on the economic sustainable growth, great effect and harm. Debt is expected to have become major problems in our country’s development threat, must be addressed as soon as possible.
This paper is expected to debt risk in China as the research object, the comprehensive analysis of the present situation, the characteristic is expected to debt, and introduced the debt is expected to both the positive and negative side effects. On this basis, the paper is expected to cause of formation of the debt risk and analyzed from the economic development level, the functions of the government and management to analyze the influence of the factors are expected to debt risk. Overall, the formation of complicated debt is expected to cause, and the existing system and mechanism imperfect is expected to produce the root of the debt. This paper constructs the debt is expected to risk assessment model, it is expected to debt risk management is discussed. How to prevent and dissolve the expected debt risk, this article mainly from the financial system reform and the transformation of government functions and debt risk management point of view put forward relevant policy recommendations, the key is to perfect our country’s public financial system, to promote the reform of public finance system is expected to, and to strengthen the management of the debt is expected to risk.
