中国加入 WTO 后，人民币问题一直是经济领域的热点问题，而厘清人民币汇率对中国对外贸易的影响则是阐清这一问题的基本前提。本文以汇率变动理论、国际贸易理论为依托，采用定性与定量分析相结合的方法，分析了汇率变动对对我国贸易收支影响的制约因素和一般影响；本文认为短期内人民币升值会对中国对外贸易产生不利的影响，且并不能有效改善目前中国贸易不均衡的局面，但在长期有利于中国经济的健康发展。加快经济结构调整步伐，逐步实施以市场供求为基础的浮动汇率制度可能是一种较好的政策选择。也是为了更充分反映人民币汇率变动对中国贸易发展的影响。
RMB exchange rate fluctuation on China’s current-account effect
—— to foreign trade as an example
After China joins WTO, the RMB has been a hot issue in the field of economy, and to clarify the RMB exchange rate ‘s influence on China foreign trade. It is the basic premise of issue. Based on the exchange rate fluctuation theory, international trade theory as the basis, using a combination of qualitative and quantitative analysis method, analysis of the exchange rate change on China’s balance of trade effects of constraints and general influence; this article believe that short-term RMB appreciation to China’s foreign trade has adverse effects, and can not effectively improve current Chinese trade the imbalance, but in the long term, is conducive to the healthy development of China’s economy. Quicken pace of economic structural adjustment, and gradually implement based on market supply and demand of the floating exchange rate system may be a better choice of policy. Also in order to more fully reflect the fluctuation of RMB exchange rate on China’s trade development influence.
And exchange rate changes on the trade volume and trade structure effect corresponds to, article for more in-depth discussion of exchange rate fluctuation on Chinese import and export market structure, analysis of the RMB exchange rate changes on Chinese trade structure effect. At the end of the RMB exchange rate in the long term trend analysis and research. Put forward their own views, and make relevant policy recommendations. This will in China how to properly deal with the reform of the RMB exchange rate and the adjustment of the relationship between foreign trade balance, has a certain significance.
KEY WORDS：RMB exchange rate; trade; economic growth; mode of trade
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