目 录
中国金融危机问题的前瞻性研究
摘要:
自1929 – 1933年大危机以后,世界经济在未来半个世纪内是保持相对稳定。但90年代后,全球的金融危机层出不穷,金融危机爆发的频率更高了。根据克鲁曼分析得知；金融危机大约每两年就发生一次。这场危机会以国际游资的运作为导火线, 以货币危机为爆发点；有内源性、潜伏性、快速、广泛的连锁性和传染性等特点，世界经济危机对各个国家有很大的损害。尽管中国在亚洲金融危机中依靠较严格的资本控制,避免传播的危机,但中国已经加入了WTO,我国的资本项目自由化控制是一种必然趋势,中国经济将越来越深,广泛融入全球经济一体化,这使我国经济在面临更多机遇的同时,也将面临着更大的冲击和测试。因此,对于金融危机生成和感染机制无疑有着深刻的现实意义。特别是在中国金融体系有很多坏帐和整个金融系统是脆弱的背景,这类研究尤为迫切。对此,本文在借鉴理论界对金融危机生成和感染机制进行研究的基础上,使用规范和实证相结合的分析方法,对中国的金融体系,资本流动、外汇、外债管理体制和投资效益的调查,指出我国存在的安全隐患可能引发的金融危机,并试图阻止金融危机在中国提出了政策选择。
关键词:
金融危机;防范预警;系统政策;选择改革
China’s financial crisis of the prospective study
Abstract:
Since the 1929-1933 crisis, the world economy in the future in half a century is to keep relatively stable. But in the 90 s, the global financial crisis emerge in endlessly, the financial crisis is higher frequency. According to the analysis that krugman; Financial crisis about every two years has a time. The crisis in the operation of the international hot money often to support the currency crisis, endogenous, latent, fast, and extensive links and infectious, characteristics, the world economic crisis countries have a lot of damage. Although China during the Asian financial crisis rely on relatively strict capital control, in order to avoid the spread of the crisis, but China has joined the WTO, China’s capital account liberalization control is a kind of inevitable trend, the Chinese economy will more and more deep and extensive integration into the global economy integration, this makes our country economy in the face of the more opportunities at the same time, will face more impact and test. So, for financial crisis generation and infection mechanism has a profound realistic significance of no doubt. Especially in China’s financial system has a lot of bad debts and the whole financial system is fragile background, this kind of research is particularly urgent. In view of this, this article is in reference theoretical circles on the financial crisis generation and infection mechanism based on the research of using standard and empirical combination of analysis method, in China’s financial system, capital flows, foreign exchange, foreign debt management system and the investigation of the benefit of investment in China, points out that the existing security hidden danger could cause financial crisis, and tried to stop the financial crisis in China are put forward the policy choice.
Key words:
the financial crisis; Guard against early warning; System policy; Choose reform
