中国外汇储备快速增长的原因分析
摘 要:我国外汇储备快速增长是我国经济快速发展的必然结果,对我国经济发展也起到重要的保障作用,但外汇储备的过快速增长也给我国经济造成了一些负面影响。本文从外汇储备的相关概念与理论入手,在分析我国外汇储备现状的基础上,总结出了我国外汇储备目前存在的问题:速度过快,规模过大。并分析了造成我国外汇储备过快增长的具体原因,以及外汇储备过快增长给我国国民经济发展带来的有利于不利影响。最后本文提出了实现我国外汇储备适度增长的建议与对策:适度放缓经济增长速度;降低经常项目顺差;降低资本和金融项目顺差;改变紧盯美元的汇率制度。希望本文的研究对于我国外汇储备适度增长有一定的借鉴意义。
关键词:外汇储备 过快增长 负面影响
China Foreign Exchange Reserve Analysis of the Causes of Rrapid Growth
Abstract:The rapid growth of China’s foreign exchange reserves of China’s rapid economic development is the inevitable result of China’s economic development also plays an important role in safeguarding, but the rapid growth of foreign exchange reserves had also caused some of China’s negative impact on the economy. In this paper, concepts and theories related to foreign exchange reserves to start the analysis on the basis of the status quo of China’s foreign exchange reserves, summed up the problems of China’s foreign exchange reserves now: too fast, too big, and analyzed the resulting rapid growth of China’s foreign exchange reserves of the specific reasons for the excessive growth of foreign exchange reserves to China’s national economic development in favor of adverse effects. Finally, the paper proposed to achieve moderate growth of China’s foreign exchange reserves of suggestions and strategies: a moderate slowdown in economic growth; reduce the current account surplus; reduce the capital and financial account surplus; change the U.S. dollar peg exchange rate system. Hope this study for moderate growth of China’s foreign exchange reserves have some reference.
Keywords: foreign exchange reserves excessive growth negative effect
目 录
Abstract…………………………………………………………. II
1外汇储备的理论基础…………………………………………………… 1
1.1外汇储备相关概念界定……………………………………………… 1
1.2外汇储备规模理论…………………………………………………. 1
1.2.1成本收益理论…………………………………………………. 1
1.2.2储备需求函数…………………………………………………. 1
1.2.3比例分析法…………………………………………………… 2
2我国外汇储备的现状与存在的问题………………………………………… 3
2.1我国外汇储备现状…………………………………………………. 3
2.2我国外汇储备增长中存在的问题………………………………………. 4
2.2.1 我国外汇储备规模过大…………………………………………. 4
2.2.2 我国外汇储备增长过快…………………………………………. 5
3.1经常项目和资本与金融项目的双顺差…………………………………… 6
3.2国内储蓄和投资的失衡……………………………………………… 6
3.3国际金融风险实力的增强,外汇储备量亦日趋庞大………………………… 7
3.4我国外汇储备的增长特点……………………………………………. 7
3.5 热钱和外商直接投资………………………………………………. 8
4我国外汇储备过快增长的利弊分析………………………………………… 9
4.1外汇储备增长的正面影响……………………………………………. 9
4.1.1有利于提高我国经济地位………………………………………… 9
4.1.2有利于我国防范外部金融风险…………………………………….. 9
4.1.3有利于弱化货币错配的风险………………………………………. 9
4.1.4有利于人民币汇率制度的改革……………………………………. 10
4.2外汇储备过快增长的负面影响……………………………………….. 10
4.2.1影响货币政策的独立性与有效性………………………………….. 10
4.2.2持有外汇储备的机会成本巨大……………………………………. 11
4.2.3加大人民币升值压力…………………………………………… 11
5实现我国外汇储备适度发展的对策与建议………………………………….. 12
5.1适度放缓经济增长速度…………………………………………….. 12
5.2降低经常项目顺差………………………………………………… 12
5.3合理外汇储备规模,建立规模预警线………………………………….. 12
5.4增强实力,控制举债规模,加大出口创汇力度…………………………… 13
参考文献:………………………………………………………….. 15