金堂110KV变电站项目安装工程风险评价研究
电力行业成为国民经济的支出产业，电力产业的发展将会直接关系到经济繁荣与大众生活水准的提升，涵盖不可替代的社会经济价值。不过，以变电站为代表的基建项目建设存在前期投入大、建设周期长等复杂性因素，从规划设计到竣工的全过程中存在多种步骤，任何操作流程均可能存在风险要素。所以，在工程工期内将会具备多种作用要素，涵盖主观因素、社会因素、自然因素、环境因素、资金因素、原料因素，以及技术因素等。随着变电站项目建设领域中新科技手段与新材料工艺的持续引入，将会带来更多的风险要素。如果在建设环节中存在难以估量的风险要素，将会导致一系列问题的出现，包括工程项目延期、高消耗低产出等现象，严重的情况将会直接对工程质量或工程建设目标产生巨大破坏作用。有鉴于此，针对变电站工程项目建设的工期风险研究具备极高的理论探索价值和践行功效。不仅能够针对项目工期风险展开分析，能够从整体角度探索工期风险影响要素，可以为具体工程建设中的风险规避带来正面促进效果；同时也是会以变电站工程项目具体操作经验作为参考前提，能够对相关项目对应的工期风险影响作用进行分析，由此可以为后续工程的开展提供高效的指导建议。
当前分析的核心内容体现在以整体角度探索变电站项目建设的工期，以及相对应的风险评价，进而可以从综合角度探寻项目开展的工期风险状态，以此为后续工期风险的规避提供科学的指导建议。本文以金堂110千伏变电站项目作为研究对象，针对该项目工程工期风险的作用因素作为探讨内容，构建适合项目开展的工期风险评价指标系统，选择模糊综合评价模式与层次分析模式相融合的研究手段，由此对项目工期风险进行精准的分析与评价，在此基础上，以研究的结果作为风险防范措施的参考依据，由此能够为工程项目的开展带来必要的指导规范，同时也是可以为相关工程项目建设的工期风险管理提供科学化的规范。
关键词：模糊层次分析法、风险评价、电力工程
The power industry become the spending of the national economy industry, the development of electric power industry will directly related to the economic prosperity and public life level of ascension, irreplaceable social economic value. Represented by transformer substation construction project construction, however, there exists large upfront investment, long construction period and other complexity factors, from design to completion there are many steps in the whole process of, any operation process are there may be a risk factor. so, in the project within the time limit for a project will have a variety of factors, subjective factors, social factors, natural factors, environmental factors, capital factors, material factors, as well as technical factors and so on. As the transformer substation project construction field continuous introduction of new technology and new materials technology, will bring more risk factors. If the incalculable risk factors exist in the construction process, will lead to the emergence of a series of issues, including the phenomenon such as project delay, high consumption and low output, severe cases will directly target on construction engineering quality or engineering have a huge damage. For this reason, in view of the transformer substation construction project time limit for a project risk research have very high theory value and practice effect. Can not only on project schedule risk analysis, from the overall perspective to explore risk factors such time limit, the risk aversion for specific engineering construction positive promotion effect; As to the substation project specific operation experience is also used as a reference, to the corresponding related project time limit for a project risk impact analysis, thus can provide effective guidance for the development of subsequent project proposals.
The core content of the current analysis in exploration substation project construction time limit for a project as a whole, and the corresponding risk evaluation, which can be from the perspective of comprehensive state of time limit for a project to explore the project risk, to follow-up period risk aversion to provide scientific guidance advice. Taking JTG 110 kV substation project as the research object, according to the role of the project construction period risk factors as discussed content, construct the project in the time limit for a project risk evaluation index system, fuzzy comprehensive evaluation model and research method, combining the hierarchical analysis model of the precision of project schedule risk analysis and evaluation, based on this, to study results as references for the risk prevention measures, which can bring the necessary guidance for the conduct of the project specifications, but also can provide relevant project construction time limit for a project risk management of scientific norms.
Keywords: fuzzy analytic hierarchy process, risk evaluation, power engineering
目 录
1.2.1 国外相关研究现状………………………………. 10
1.2.2 国内相关研究现状………………………………. 11
1.3.1 论文研究思路………………………………….. 14
1.3.2 主要研究内容………………………………….. 14
2.2 变电站项目安装工程风险管理的内涵及特征………………. 20
2.2.1 变电站项目安装工程风险管理的内涵………………… 20
2.2.2 变电站项目安装工程风险管理的特征………………… 20
2.3 变电站项目安装工程风险管理中存在的问题及原因…………. 21
2.3.1 变电站项目安装工程风险管理中存在的问题…………… 21
2.3.2 变电站项目安装工程风险管理缺陷的原因…………….. 22
第3章变电站项目安装工程风险识别与风险评价……………. 23
3.1 变电站项目安装工程中存在的风险源…………………… 24
3.2 变电站项目安装工程风险统计分析…………………….. 26
3.2.1 变电站风险源及其情况统计………………………. 26
3.2.2 风险统计分析中存在的不足………………………. 27
3.3 变电站项目安装工程风险分析指标体系的建立……………. 29
第4章 变电站项目安装工程风险综合评价模型…………….. 29
4.1.1 构成综合评价问题的要素…………………………. 29
4.1.2 综合评价方法分类………………………………. 30
4.1.3 综合评价程序………………………………….. 30
4.1.4 评价方法筛选原则………………………………. 31
4.3.1 模糊综合评价法概述…………………………….. 34
4.3.3 建立评判语集和隶属度函数……………………….. 34
第5章金堂110kV变电站项目安装工程风险评价……………. 37
5.1金堂110kV变电站建设项目简介……………………….. 37
5.2金堂110kV变电站建设风险评价……………………….. 37
5.3.1 计算权重及一致性检验…………………………… 39
5.3.2 综合评判确定分值………………………………. 40
5.3.3 综合风险评价参数计算…………………………… 41
5.3.4 风险评价结果分析………………………………. 42
5.4 变电站建设工程项目不同风险等级的应对措施及策略……….. 43
5.4.5变电站建设项目风险应对策略……………………… 44
