摘 要
城市房价价格普遍上涨已经成为社会各界关注的一个热点问题。从而带来地价与房价关系的关注与争论，它也是房地产市场调节的关键。房价与地价受经济、社会、环境、政策等因素影响。在市场经济条件下，房地产价格的形成与上涨主要是由价值规律和市场供求关系决定的，房地产价格上涨归根到底是城市社会经济发展引起房地产市场供求关系变化的结果。房价与地价相互作用，相互影响，通过一定的传导机制发生作用。文章从国内外研究现状出发，从中吸取经验教训，以武汉市为例,通过对武汉市地价与房价数据的研究,进行 Granger因果检验，从而显示房价对地价的拉动效应。最后针对分析结果提出若干建议，以期达到统筹兼顾土地市场和房地产市场，促进各级市场之间良性互动和协同发展的目的。
关键词：地价；房价；武汉市；格兰杰因果检验；实证
ABSTRACT
Urban housing prices generally rising prices has become the community’s concern about a hot issue. Land prices and housing prices so as to bring the attention and controversy, it is also the key to regulate the real estate market. And premium prices by the economic, social, environmental, policy and other factors. Under the market economy conditions, the formation and real estate prices rose mainly by the law of value and the market determine the relationship between supply and demand, property prices rose the final analysis, urban socio-economic development has led to changes in the real estate market supply and demand results. Interaction with premium prices, mutual influence, through the transmission mechanism must play a role. This paper at home and abroad, starting on the status quo, from which lessons learned, to Wuhan City, for example, through land and housing prices in Wuhan City of data, Granger causality test, which showed that housing prices and the intrinsic relationship between the premium. Finally, the results of a number of recommendations to achieve balanced land market and real estate market, the market at all levels to promote positive interaction and synergy between development.
Key words: land prices; housing prices; Wuhan City; Granger Causality Test；demonstration
目 录
1 绪论 …………………………………………………………1
2 文献综述…………………………………………………………1
2.1国外研究动态及文献综述………………………………………1
2.2 国内研究动态及文献综述………………………………………2
3 地价与房价的概念界定…………………………………………3
3.1 地价的内涵与外延………………………………………………3
3.2房价的内涵与外延………………………………………………4
4 机制分析…………………………………………………………4
4.1 地价与房价关系的短期分析……………………………………4
4.2 地价与房价关系的长期分析……………………………………5
4.3 地价与房价关系的动态分析……………………………………7
5 武汉市地价与房价现状以及特征…………………………8
5.1 武汉市地价现状……………………………………………………8
5.1.1 武汉市总体平均地价…………………………………………8
5.1.2 武汉市不同用途的土地平均价格…………………………9
5.1.3 武汉市不同级别的土地平均价格…………………………10
5.2 武汉市房价现状…………………………………………………11
5.2.1 武汉市房地产供需关系……………………………………11
5.2.2 武汉市不同用途与等级房地产开发投资情况……………12
5.2.3 武汉市不同地区房地产开发投资情况……………………13
5.3 武汉市地价与房价的相互关系…………………………………14
6 武汉市房价对地价拉动效应的实证分析……………………15
6.1 武汉市房价与地价数据收集及整理…………………………15
6.2 武汉市房价对地价拉动效应的实证研究………………………16
6.2.1 平稳性检验……………………………………………………16
6.2.2 协整关系检验………………………………………………17
6.2.3 误差修正模型………………………………………………17
6.2.4 Granger因果关系检验………………………………………18
7 结论及建议……………………………………………………19
7.1 结论………………………………………………………………19
7.2 稳定地价与房价的建议………………………………………20
7.2.1 明确政府定位并控制土地供应………………………………20
7.2.2协调各部门行动…………………………………………20
7.2.3继续实施并完善土地招拍挂制度……………………………20
7.2.4 加强和完善土地储备制度……………………………………21
7.2.5 发展多样化的有效的投资渠道………………………………21
参考文献………………………………………………………22
致谢………………………………………………………………23
